NFL Investing Guide
Sunday’s winners and losers: Card values looking up for some WR’s
Oct 8th
Big Winners:
- All Atlanta Falcons not named Jacquizz Rodgers. We still love Jacquizz but he was a bit of an afterthought Sunday.
- Drew Brees big primetime performance, and more importantly a primetime victory, has hushed the Saints doubters at least temporarily. Big win for NOLA.
- Ryan Mathews had a huge game in a loss to the Saints. While a lot of RB’s have done well against NOLA it is still a big step forward for him.
- Jamaal Charles continues to thrive despite KC’s best efforts to be the worst team in the league. He is still selling incredibly low based on his talent and performance.
- Ahmad Bradshaw was back in a big way. 200+ yards from scrimmage and a Giants victory should cause a nice uptick in his 2007 SP Authentic Auto RC which have pretty much been a steal for about a year now.
- Rashard Mendenhall is back and looked very good. He played 22 snaps scoring once and running 16 times. Very good news for those holding his RC’s after his abrupt exit last season. We imagine this investment window will be closing quickly as the Steelers love their players and he gets the Titans in primetime this week.
- Reggie Wayne of course had a huge day but we don’t expect this to move his cardboard much.
Big Losers:
- Joe Flacco and the Ravens defense. Everyone has shredded the KC secondary but Flacco had a tough time on Sunday managing ZERO TD’s.
- Robert Griffin III had a lackluster performance that ended with a concussion. Kirk Cousins, a Card Geek favorite until he was drafted to back up RG3, came in and looked very good…for about 6 plays.
- Blaine Gabbert’s head is once again being called for. While he hasn’t been amazing he did get beat up by the same team that picked off Tony Romo five times last week so give him a little slack. He is a reasonable buy low option right now for those who still have faith.
- CJ Spiller…and all of the Bills. They got absolutely crushed.
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis appears to have been demoted to a full on timeshare. I doubt many people had a bunch of his cards but if they did they won’t be happy with this.
- Cam Newton’s sophomore sadness continues. He looks really bad. He is being exposed this year. Last year he survived on the long ball and this year he doesn’t have the time to throw the long ball. That offensive line is hurting a lot of people….what’s up Ryan Kalil? Super Bowl bound huh? HA!
Week 6 UPDATE to 2011 Investment Guide: Running Backs
Oct 11th
This is part two in a several part series. Be sure to check in as more guides are posted.
Felix Jones- Almost all alone with the exception of Demarco Murray in what was an overcrowded backfield last season. Prices remain fairly low on Jones given the upside potential but nagging injuries are making collector’s skittish about his prospects to be a feature back. Look for Felix to break out this season and even if he doesn’t his cards are still very cheap for a potential starring RB playing for “America’s Team”. Ultimate Auto Jsy’s are about $25, SP Authentic Auto Patches are anywhere from $50-75 and National Treasures Auto Patches are in the same realm as the SPA. Pick them up ASAP. INVESTMENT GRADE: A- (Downgraded from A on 10/11/11)
Maurice Jones-Drew-The perennially under appreciated back is off to another fantastic start. 4th in rushing yards Drew was expected to have a down year with concerns over his knee and talented backups. The Jacksonville team is most definitely a work in progress but MJD has shown they can count on him every weekend. He’s still only 26 years old! Not many folks realize that and they are missing out. His 2006 RC’s are stupid cheap. A 4 color SPA recently ended for $40. INVESTMENT GRADE: A-
Ladainian Tomlinson- The upside on his cards are definitely gone but he is a sure fire Hall of Famer and you should be looking for any opportunity to buy his key RC’s at a low price. Bowman Chrome, Topps Chrome, and SP Authentic are the main cards that will hold value going forward. Anything around $20 for Bowman Chrome would be good and $15 for Topps Chrome. Investing in a guy like LT will in the worst case scenario leave you with an NFL Legend’s RC. INVESTMENT GRADE: B+
Darren McFadden-The buying window has probably closed on McFadden which means it’s time for a downgrade. 2008 Contenders are now $50 instead of $25 and SPA are now $100 for single color rather than $50. Doubling up is always good. Sell now and take the profit. It’s not that Darren isn’t a stud with a bright future it’s just that you need to take the profit while you can. He could bust his knee sunday and his prices would suffer. It’s the harsh reality of sports. INVESTMENT GRADE: B (Downgraded from A- on 10/11/11)
Lesean McCoy- A classic case of a being surrounded by bigger stars than yourself killing your card value. McCoy is the only thing that has kept the Eagles from completely bombing the 2011 season thus far. He already has seven TD’s and almost 700 yards from scrimmage in five games. He’s only 23 years old and plays the same style of game as Matt Forte but he sells for quite a bit more. His SPA Auto Patches typically sell in the $55-80 range. Our suggestion is to pick up a couple of his RC’s whether it be Topps Chrome Refractors or SPA Auto Patches and stash them until the Eagles right the ship. INVESTMENT GRADE: B
Matt Forte- We hit the nail on the head here. His SPA have moved from the $30 range preseason to around $40 now. However we don’t see it going all that much higher so if you see them selling for $50-60 you should go ahead and dump them. Forte is a solid back but not a big enough talent to hold those prices without a major playoff run by the Bears. INVESTMENT GRADE: B (Downgraded from B+ 10/11/11)
Chris “Beanie” Wells- We’re being optimistic with him but his $10-15 Topps Chrome Auto RC’s haven’t moved much even though he has done well thus far. The problem is his team has been awful. We’re going to give him a bump in grade simply because we think he is about to pop. Those chrome autos should reach $20-25 by December. INVESTMENT GRADE: B (Upgraded from B- on 10/11/11)
Mark Ingram- Prices are still too high despite him being stuck in an absolute committee in New Orleans.We fully expect his cards to be far to high to recommend investment by the time the more quality sets like Contenders and National Treasures come out. INVESTMENT GRADE: B-
Adrian Peterson- His prices are high but they won’t be dropping any time soon. The Vikings look poised for a big run in 2011 and Peterson will obviously be the centerpiece of the attack. He isn’t a “Buy Now” candidate but he also isn’t a “Sell Now” candidate. If you find something like a Topps Chrome RC for about $5 go ahead and grab as many as you can. INVESTMENT GRADE: B-
Chris Johnson- Buyers are still optimistic about Johnson who has been sluggish so far in 2011 despite his team’s 3-2 start. His prices have barely budged as a 2008 Contenders Auto will still cost you $100. Hold or buy at bargain prices only. INVESTMENT GRADE: B-
Steven Jackson- We aren’t going to change a thing about our previous Jackson blurb. The situation hasn’t changed there……Jackson’s prices are very low and probably don’t have a ton of potential for moving upward but he is still worthy of an investment simply because his cardboard is cheap and he is a very talented player despite injury concerns. He is a workhorse and collector’s have seen workhorses like him (think Shaun Alexander) go by the wayside pretty quickly once injuries start taking their toll. His 2004 SPX is around $40 and worth a look although given the injury concerns a Topps Chrome RC for $3-5 may be the wiser option. INVESTMENT GRADE: C+
Shonn Greene- Greene has been the feature for the most part as Rex Ryan promised but it hasn’t gone so well for the Jets or Shonn. A 2009 National Treasures RC Auto Patch #’d to 99 recently ended without a bid at $29.99. Not a good sign at all for support of his cardboard. At current prices though it’s tough to say investment is a terrible idea when you’re talking about the New York starting RB. Pick up a couple SP Authentic Auto Patches for under $20 and sit on them. INVESTMENT GRADE: C+ (Downgraded from a B 10/11/11)
Jamaal Charles- Sigh. Knee injuries are the worst. Should you sell? We don’t know. Should you hold? Probably not. It’s a very confusing situation. If you can sell for what you paid or even 75% of that price we recommend dealing your Charles cards and picking them up at a later date. His prices have actually held fairly steady as SPA’s are still selling between $50-70. If prices dip much further you could pick up a couple and hope for the best in his return next season. INVESTMENT GRADE: C (Downgraded from B+ 10/11/11)
Ryan Mathews- Well we missed on this one. His prices were most definitely too high to garner investment from anyone who doesn’t love to play with their money. However he has done very well and put up another great effort in Week 5. If you didn’t have his cards at their already inflated prices you definitely won’t want them now. His performance has garnered an upgrade though. INVESTMENT GRADE: C (Upgraded from D- 10/11/11)
Reggie Bush-Not much to report here. You should have avoided his cards as we suggested so hopefully you did. INVESTMENT GRADE: D- (Downgraded from D on 10/11/11)
- The only thing he is good at!
Knowshown Moreno- We were spot on when we said “kiss Moreno’s value goodbye” in September. He should maybe even be downgraded further. The only thing that makes us keep him from an F is that if McGahee gets hurt Moreno will get a chance to shine and he is very cheap right now. INVESTMENT GRADE: D-
Is Eric Decker for Real?
Oct 4th
Yes. For reals-ies, he is for real.
In case you don’t know his story let’s review. At 6’3, 220 lbs. he is big enough to be a big deal in the big leagues. He slipped to the third round of the 2010 NFL Draft after missing his senior year at Minnesota with a foot injury. He holds the Minnesota record for receptions in a season. He was ranked as a Top 10 WR in the 2010 draft by most analysts who knew what they were talking about but was the second WR chosen by his own team behind Demaryius Thomas. The draft was deep at the wideout position and could easily be the year of the Wide Receiver when draft classes are reexamined in a few years. Back to Decker though. He has a big body and great hands. His work ethic is amazing and it has had to be to get where he is after battling injuries in his college career. He doesn’t have breakaway speed but he has enough to matter. He is very comparable to Jordy Nelson in both style of play and background. Neither one of them were even supposed to be D1 standouts let alone NFL starters. The biggest difference between the two is that Decker is much more imposing in size and that makes all the difference when you’re crossing the middle of the field or trying to grab a TD in traffic. His agility has been questioned but check out this TD grab in sunday’s game against Green Bay.
Following this performance a lot of cheaper BIN’s were hit on ebay, and rightly so. His 2010 Contenders sits at about $10 and we’ll see if it makes more of a move at auction this week. 2010 Elite and Various Topps Autos are in the same range. Before the season most of these could be had for $.99 plus shipping.
Given the fan base in Denver and their usually strong support of cards of their young stars you can feel good about a $10 drop on Decker. I can easily see these at $20 with potential for $30 if you get his good ones such as Contenders, Topps Chrome Autos and Exquisite or SPA. I would shy away from any UD products from 2010 or any product with him in a non-broncos uniform. If these get to $20 do not hesitate to sell. He isn’t a long term investment option. He will be a solid player but so is his player Brandon Lloyd and you see what kind of value he has.
Week 2 NFL Studs and Duds: RB’s, Buy or Sell?
Sep 20th
Fred Jackson- Denying CJ Spiller his chance to shine Freddy is once again carrying the load in Buffalo. So far so good at 2-0 and leading the NFL in rushing with 229 yards. He doesn’t have the most exciting run style and his rookie cards are much the same. 2008 Rookie Cards in Score, Absolute and Score Select are all there is of Mr. Jackson. Absolute is the highest end and probably the most sought after but even that one will only cost you $5-10. There are retail versions of the absolute to look out for as well. Sadly neither version is numbered. They are definitely cheap for the league’s leading rusher but it is only week 2 and you would be crazy to think he will keep it up. HOLD or SELL
Darren McFadden- A stellar week 2 on the back of his great week 1 McFadden is second behind Jackson with 222 yards. McFadden does have eight receptions for another 78 yards to go with his rushing output. He has fumbled once unlike Jackson so right now Jackson has the edge but in the hobby McFadden is a much better option. Raiders fan’s love their players and as long as Darren can stay healthy you can expect his values to climb. His 2008 Topps and Bowman Chrome’s continue to be a great option in bulk at usually $1 per for the base and $2-3 for refractors. BUY
Ben Tate- We’re not sure what to do about this guy. He’s off to a great start despite being banged up but the true holder of the Texan’s #1 spot is Arian Foster and that will probably keep his values from shooting too high. There are a few ways to take the Tate analysis. Maybe the Texans are a running back machine of late. Slaton looked good at the end of 2008, Foster was fantastic in 2010, 2009 was a throwaway but 2011 may be Tate’s year. How high can his cards climb? That all depends on how much Texans fans love him because if he does too well there is a chance the Texans RB’s could go the way of early 2000′s Bronco’s tailbacks who all had their moment in the sun but their cards crashed hard and fast. Olandis Gary anyone? If you do decide to go deep with Tate be sure to sell FAST. With 2010 Contenders RC Autos still under $20 and Topps Chrome Autos under $15 it may be worth a shot to grab a few. BUY or HOLD
Beanie Wells- Off to a good start if you’re Beanie Wells. He is top 10 in rushing but let’s face it the rushing attacks are pretty weak thus far in 2011. He did average over 6.5 per carry this past weekend which is good no matter who you are. He is still a high upside investment as the Cardinals could easily be in the playoffs in a weak NFC West. If Wells can stay healthy, no easy task for him, and continue to perform the sky is the limit for the 23 year old. You read that right…23 years old. It seems like we have waited for him to perform long enough that he is 30 but he still has a lot of years in him if he can get established as a feature back in Arizona. The typical autographed RC’s you want (SPX, Topps Chrome, Contenders) are all easily findable under $15 at this point. Nab a couple for your stash. BUY
SP Authentic is always a good option if you want to spend a bit more cash, which also means you have to like him more. As always, do your own research.
Daniel Thomas- Looked good. Real good. We recommend his Finest Patch Autos /310 for under $15 even though that set is an absolute disaster about figuring out which one collector’s will consider the actual RC. It’s still the best option though as Inception is almost as messy and more costly. BUY or HOLD
There is also this version /589
Week 2 NFL Studs and Duds: QB’s, Buy or Sell?
Sep 19th

Tony Romo- Just when it was seeming like it was time to ditch your Romo’s after a horrific choke job only he seems capable of in Week 1 versus the Jets he does something special. Hindered by injuries and bad performance the last few years Romo had his rib broken in the first half of Sunday’s game at San Francisco. Jon Kitna came in and things didn’t look good for Romo as it appeared 2011 was already headed for another disappointment being down to San Fran and on their way to an 0-2 start with an injured star QB. Kitna tossed a pick to make matters worse. Then he bounced back with a nice TD drive. The next posession was another Kitna pick though and Romo came running out of the locker room demanding a helmet just in time for the subsequent Dallas possession. The Cowboys are quickly pushed to a 3rd and long after a holding penalty and a busted run. Third down brings a bad snap that Romo wrangles inside his own five yard line and dumps off for a small gain ending the drive in a punt. Romo’s next series began with a big sack. From that point on Romo and the Cowboys were solid gold. Three long drives and about 200 passing yards later (this was the 4th quarter and OT alone) the Cowboys had a comeback overtime win led by their hardworking midwestern boy who gritted out a broken rib to lead his team. I’m going to vomit if I keep writing about this. I hate the cowboys. The fact still remains though that this is the stuff legends are made of. The prices of his cards may seem silly to most like $200 for his 2003 Contenders RC Auto and $20 for a Bowman Chrome RC but you have to remember that those same cards have been at $350 and $40. Room for growth. Pick your poison. BUY-HOLD
Tom Brady-If you have the money to invest in his RC’s you should do so. You would probably be best served to wait a couple more weeks to see if they settle down a bit and never under any circumstance pay over $100 for a raw Bowman Chrome RC. You could get them for under $70 in the offseason and come Summer 2012 it will be about the same no matter what he does this season. BUY-HOLD

Cam Newton- If he keeps up his torrid pace and cuts the picks down his cards may actually grow in value. I wouldn’t dare invest in him at current prices but if you are the high risk low reward type then jump right in, the water is very warm. Everyone else… SELL
Ryan Fitzpatrick- This is an intriguing guy to pick up. His team is off to a hot start and it’s almost entirely because of his arm. He plays in a town that has been a hobby wasteland for quite some time and that probably won’t change any time soon. Their two best players in franchise history have autographs and memorabilia cards routinely priced under $20. This would have to be a SELL recommendation. Check out this stash being sold off.
Philip Rivers- The Chargers are always high on everyone’s list to make a deep playoff run. Will it happen this year? If you think it will then you should also buy Philip Rivers RC’s. Particularly the ones that will have good value moving forward even if they pull their annual choke job. 2004 Topps Chrome for the low end and SPA for high end as usual. In the offseason you could get Chrome base for $5 and refractors for $15-20 so keep that in mind when making your purchases. HOLD
Matt Stafford- KC made him look good. We hoped that would help keep his values in check to give you one more week to buy his cardboard before it really took off. We bought countless Topps Chrome Refractors for $5-7 this offseason. They are selling for $15-20 now so it may be late on them. For those interested in ponying up a bit more cash…well you’re out of luck too. You can’t safely invest $200+ in an SPA. More times than not you will lose. HOLD-SELL
Matt Cassel- If you hadn’t already done it last season like you should have. Sell while you still can. These could easily be dollar bin buys soon. He’s never been very good and he won’t be in the future. SELL
Josh Freeman- It says something about the faith of most collector’s in Freeman that there are a ton of his SPA Patches listed with high starting prices after his slow start. Pessimism is abound. He will right the ship. HOLD
Donovan McNabb- Wow. You are owed an apology. We gave him an A investment rating and had high hopes for him in Minnesota. Thus far it doesn’t look good. Don’t give up yet though. His prices are low and were low for someone with his accomplishments even before the trade. Stay strong or if you aren’t optimistic go ahead and sell but right now you might as well hold. HOLD
2011 NFL Season Investment Guide: Wide Recievers and Tight Ends
Aug 19th
There will be plenty of guys left off of this list as there are far to many WR’s in the league to give a comprehensive list so instead we’ll focus on the guys you should buy into and those who you should avoid like that annoying girl in high school that asked you out no less than twenty times senior year.
**IMPORTANT NOTE- Investing in Wide Receivers is almost always riskier than any other position you could choose, do your own research to be sure you want to buy into a guy.**
Larry Fitzgerald- It’s hard to say his rookie cards don’t get their due respect but given his numbers and age they should be getting even more support. 2004 Topps Chrome Refractors routinely sell under $10 for the only current player with a legitimate shot at cracking the top 3 major recieving stats for his career. Jerry Rice may never be caught but 8200 yards and 65 TD’s at the soon to be age of 28 Fitz is the only one with a real chance at catching Rice’s 197 TD’s and almost 23,000 yards. Rice played until he was 42 and Fitz’s body type, work ethic, and all around health say that he could do the same. INVESTMENT GRADE: A
Calvin Johnson- There isn’t much to say about “Megatron” that you haven’t already heard. He is the epitome of a stud at the WR position. Talent-wise nobody in the league touches the class he and Larry Fitzgerald are in. His National Treasures Auto Patches run about $125 which is about $50-100 lower than they should be given their rarity and fantastic design. His 2007 Contenders autographs will cost you about $70 and don’t have a ton of room for growth when you compare them to other stud WR’s rookie cards because they aren’t all that rare and their are plenty of other rookie card options available in 2007 if the Contenders gets too high priced. You can’t really go wrong buying Megatron, just don’t expect it to be a huge upside investment. INVESTMENT GRADE: B+
Percy Harvin-Sidney Rice is gone, Donovan McNabb is in. Donovan loves his speedy little slot WR’s and his TE’s. Expect Harvin’s production to spike if he can stay on the field. This year will be a big one in determining whether Minnesota makes him the centerpiece of the passing game going forward. He needs to stay healthy and find a quick fix for those darn migraines when they hit him. Harvin is still only 23 years old and definitely has the highlight reel potential you look for when considering the potential for rookie cards to appreciate in value. We like him a lot this season and his NT can be found for under $50 while his Exquisite is more around $75. Our biggest recommendation would be to buy NT or Topps Chrome which you can find for about $25. INVESTMENT GRADE: B+

Greg Jennings- We’re not sure what’s keeping Jenning’s Rookie cards down. Is it that Aaron Rodgers is making everyone look good so Jennings value is being underappreciated? Perhaps, but Jennings is probably there for the longhaul and he and Rodgers will inevitably become a Manning/Harrison or Montana/Rice like combo should they both stay healthy. His Exquisite RC Autos #’d to 150 are his unquestioned best and most valuable rookie and sell around $60. Given the Green Bay fan base you can expect that to fluctuate to $100 if he has another dynamite season and possibly more if the Pack get another Super Bowl ring. The only thing hurting his value worth noting is that he had a lot of autographs collector’s can get for under $30 that are in much higher supply like Topps Chrome, SPX and Bowman Chrome. He is also as old as Larry Fitzgerald already. INVESTMENT GRADE: B
Vernon Davis- The San Fran QB situation is just as bad as it’s ever been with Davis at TE so it’s not like that will hurt his potential output in comparison to any other year. He is still a freak athlete as usual and given the opportunity will end up on highlight reels quite a few times this season. His value has gradually been dragged down each year of his career thanks to SF’s pisspoor team. With Exquisite Auto Patches under $40 and SPA Auto Patches under $25-30 it seems like a decent time to invest if you believe in his potential. We do. INVESTMENT GRADE: B
Dezmon Briscoe- While none of his rookie cards picture him in a Buccaneers uniform which is sad for a second year player there are plenty of neutral UD products showing him in his Kansas Jayhawk duds. Briscoe was ditched by the receiver heavy Cincinnati roster early last season and picked up by the Bucs where he ended the season with a 4 reception, 65 yard and one touchdown game at New Orleans. Thanks to Arrelious Benn’s injury problems Briscoe has unseated him as the starter opposite Mike Williams. The Bucs are a crowd favorite pick as sleeper in the NFC this year although they are hardly a sleeper after their 10 win season in 2010. Grab some of his KU RC Autographs but don’t spend over $5-6 on one as they don’t have much room for upside beyond $10 even if he does do well. He will probably remain second fiddle in the card market to teammate Mike Williams barring a true breakout season. There is a little room for growth though and of course a low entrance price to the Briscoe market. INVESTMENT GRADE: C+
Jeremy Maclin- Now that his major health concerns have been revealed to be a tough case of mononucleosis you can continue your regularly scheduled buying of Maclin. He’s essentially the same player as Desean Jackson but about 1/10th as much of a head case. With 2009 Exquisite and SPA Auto Patches always under $50 it’s not too much of a gamble and it could really pay off when Desean ultimately does something stupid to get suspended. Once again though this is the type of price range you really need to tread lightly with WR’s. INVESTMENT GRADE: C+
Earl Bennett- Another low risk, semi-high reward guy like Meachem, Bennett is in need of a breakout season. Everything looked good for him to finally come in healthy and be the #1 guy. Precisely the instant we were ready to dive deep into Bennett the Bears signed Roy Williams. Williams’ signing doesn’t necessarily kill Bennett’s value and in fact it could help his on field performance greatly with another threat for defenders to worry about. However we’re reading it as a lack of confidence in Bennett and backing off. With that being said there is still potential for his RC Autos to make a move. Grab a few lower end cards like Topps Chrome Autographs or if you can get an SP Authentic for less than $15-20 go ahead and take a chance. INVESTMENT GRADE: B- (Upgraded 8/29/11 from C+)
Dez Bryant- Nowhere to go but down usually on guys like this who have sky high prices and are still riding high from a stellar rookie season for a big market team. We don’t expect his value to sink much but it certainly won’t be gaining much if anything even if he does do all that well. With non-SP Contenders around $50 that puts him on a level above young stars like Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice which he clearly has not earned yet. Make no mistakes about our impression of Dez…he will be good but there won’t be much money to be made here especially when you consider the entrance price. INVESTMENT GRADE: C
Tony Moeaki- The Chiefs love him, fans love the Chiefs…however in this case Moeaki may have already topped out in value. You have to keep in mind fans are hoping for the next Tony Gonzalez and they almost certainly will not get him. His Contenders Autos are usually around $10 and his National Treasures are about the same. While that proportion is way off of what it should be that doesn’t mean you should buy one or the other. Neither will make much of a move upward if there is a move at all. The plus side of Moeaki is there isn’t much room to fall and he does have a legitimate chance to gain a few bucks value before completely deflating into the never-neverland of solid veteran TE RC’s. INVESTMENT GRADE: C
Stevie Johnson- Despite being in Buffalo his RC’s have done quite well since his breakout began in early 2010. Don’t expect them to do much better even if he puts up Pro Bowl numbers again. $20 for his 2008 Contenders and $50 for his National Treasures don’t give much room for growth on a guy stuck in Buffalo. These will move down before they move up any more. DON’T BUY. INVESTMENT GRADE: C-
Sidney Rice- Went to a good place for the hobby but the Card Geeks crew doesn’t have much faith in Rice’s abilities. The Seahawks did get T-Jack whom Rice has a repoire with so that should lessen the blow of being dealt to such a terrible offense. We basically see Rice as a more highly touted(in the NFL at least) version of a guy Seattle already has, Mike Williams. With his SPA around $30 and his outlook bleak don’t expect much movement upward. INVESTMENT GRADE: C-
Michael Crabtree- (BIAS NOTE…49ers fan writing this) While we wouldn’t touch his cardboard with a ten foot pole because of his nasty “I love me some me” style attitude, there is probably a few bucks to be made if he ever gets his act together and stops acting out against his starting quarterback whomever that may be. He may not be able to gain real value until he leaves San Francisco as he has really soured their fan base in a prima donna show dating back to his draft day in 2009. His SP Authentic Patch Autos still almost touch $100 which is absolutely asinine. Lucky for him he’ll still only be 25 when he leaves San Fran which should give him plenty of time to clean up his act elsewhere and still have a decent career. INVESTMENT GRADE: D+
2011 NFL Season Investment Guide: Running Backs
Aug 11th
This is part two in a several part series. Be sure to check in as more guides are posted.
Felix Jones- Almost all alone with the exception of Demarco Murray in what was an overcrowded backfield last season. Tashard Choice is close to being cut in camp and Barber has been released. Look for Felix to break out this season and even if he doesn’t his cards are still very cheap for a potential starring RB playing for “America’s Team”. Ultimate Auto Jsy’s are about $25, SP Authentic Auto Patches are anywhere from $50-75 and National Treasures Auto Patches are in the same realm as the SPA. Pick them up ASAP. INVESTMENT GRADE: A
Darren McFadden-The surprise of the team on a very surprising team in 2010 McFadden burst on to the scene in a similar way we expect Shonn Greene and Beanie Wells to do this season. Injuries had hampered them in their first couple seasons as well. McFadden’s backfield mate is back and appears healthy making it a slight concern that at least some of his TD’s might be vultured by Michael Bush. His National Treasures Auto Patches sell for a lowly $60-75 and Topps Chrome Autos are well under $20. INVESTMENT GRADE: A-
Jamaal Charles- We aren’t quite sure what more he needs to do to be the highest priced back in the league but currently he stands outside the Top 5. Perhaps the committee in KC is holding him back with Thomas Jones? KC fans are rabid enough to drive his prices to very high levels if he ever gets to be a feature back. As it stands right now he is being thwarted from that and we can’t advise buying unless you get a solid deal. His Topps Chrome Autographs for $20 are a pretty good buy at this point. INVESTMENT GRADE: B+
Ladainian Tomlinson- The upside on his cards are definitely gone but he is a sure fire Hall of Famer and you should be looking for any opportunity to buy his key RC’s at a low price. Bowman Chrome, Topps Chrome, and SP Authentic are the main cards that will hold value going forward. Anything around $20 for Bowman Chrome would be good and $15 for Topps Chrome. Investing in a guy like LT will in the worst case scenario leave you with an NFL Legend’s RC. INVESTMENT GRADE: B+
Matt Forte- Despite being stuck in a Mike Martz offense where his main value will be catching balls out of the backfield Forte should still see a boost in value. After all he plays in a great hobby town and should garner more respect this season for not holding out even though his contract of $550k for the season certainly warrants it in comparison to other players. His SPA usually land between $30-40 while Chrome Autos (Bowman & Topps) are easily under $15. INVESTMENT GRADE: B+
Shonn Greene- LT has been resigned at a lower rate and will get far few touches this year as Rex Ryan has already explained. He wants to make Greene the feature in and out of the backfield. His prices have already risen this offseason with his SPA Patch Autos moving from $30 to $45 and nearly everything else has taken a 10-20% hike lately. Get them quick. INVESTMENT GRADE: B
Mark Ingram- Tough to invest in him because his prices are as high as more established players like the aforementioned McFadden and Charles but if you can get your hands on any of his cardboard for a low price BEFORE he breaks out then you should do so. We fully expect his cards to be far to high to recommend investment by the time the more quality sets like Contenders and National Treasures come out. INVESTMENT GRADE: B-
Adrian Peterson- His prices are high but they won’t be dropping any time soon. The Vikings look poised for a big run in 2011 and Peterson will obviously be the centerpiece of the attack. He isn’t a “Buy Now” candidate but he also isn’t a “Sell Now” candidate. If you find something like a Topps Chrome RC for about $5 go ahead and grab as many as you can. INVESTMENT GRADE: B-
Chris Johnson- His prices are generally pretty high but have been higher and can definitely get back to those peaks if he even comes close to another 2,000 yard season. Most would settle for 2,500 all purpose yards as well. He should do well this year if he ever gets to camp and practice. Our investment recommendation for CJ2K is similar to that of AP. Hold or buy at bargain prices only. INVESTMENT GRADE: B-
Steven Jackson- Everyone seems to have written of SJax but one man’s loss is another’s gain. Jackson’s prices are very low and probably don’t have a ton of potential for moving upward but he is still worthy of an investment simply because his cardboard is cheap and he is a very talented player despite injury concerns. He is a workhorse and collector’s have seen workhorses like him (think Shaun Alexander) go by the wayside pretty quickly once injuries start taking their toll. His 2004 SPX is around $40 and worth a look although given the injury concerns a Topps Chrome RC for $3-5 may be the wiser option. INVESTMENT GRADE: C+
Chris “Beanie” Wells- With Ryan Williams breathing down his neck, Beanie is reportedly in good spirits and health this preseason. We’ve heard that one before though haven’t we? Seriously though if he can keep the ball away from Williams he could have a very good season with a new QB that will hopefully lead a potent offense and take some pressure off of the running game for Beanie’s sake. We’re being optimistic with him but his $10 Topps Chrome Auto RC’s could easily jump to $25 if he does even remotely well. INVESTMENT GRADE: B-
Reggie Bush-Is this the year, and new place (Miami), he could finally electrify fans and collectors? He is listed #1 on the first Miami depth chart of the season for whatever that is worth. His only real competition is rookie Daniel Thomas who could be more than Bush can handle. Thomas has a lot of upside but it is tough to judge at this point. His 2006 SPA still somehow sell for around $100. He could very well pay off very well but we can’t recommend investing in him without feeling guilty about it. INVESTMENT GRADE: D
The only thing he is good at!
Ryan Mathews- Mathews rookie card prices belong on the TV show Unsolved Mysteries. He did nothing to warrant big prices last season. NOTHING. Not a single breakout game until week 17 when he had 126 yards and 3 TD’s against the 4-12 Denver Broncos who had mentally checked out. Even before that week the Broncos were 31st against the run. Yet somehow his Topps Chrome Autos sell for almost $30 and his Exquisite RPA’s are almost $250. What the deuce? INVESTMENT GRADE: D-
Knowshown Moreno- His prices are higher than guys like Beanie even though he has has almost as many nagging injuries. His performance has been better than Beanie’s for sure, but Moreno has tougher competition than Ryan Williams in town after Willis McGahee signed in Denver. McGahee is a beast in a committee and that is exactly what Denver opponents will get a heavy dose of. McGahee will also get goal line carries. Kiss Moreno’s value goodbye. INVESTMENT GRADE: D-
2011 NFL Season Investment Guide: Quarterbacks
Aug 5th
This is part one in a several part series. Be sure to check in as more guides are posted.
Donovan McNabb-McNabb has been put in a very good situation with a very good team in Minnesota. He has a shot at a Super Bowl, legitimately, which would boost his cards that until new of his trade to Minny had fallen heavily. His SPX RC Auto is his best RC and continues to be a good purchase even with the bump up to the $50 range since his trade. This one would easily shoot to $100 if they make a deep playoff run or win the Super Bowl. If they beat Philly it would go even higher. Investment Grade: A
Michael Vick- Heartwarming comeback? Probably not the average person’s sentiment but fantasy players sure love having Vick back. The stigma surrounding his huge series of mistakes leading to the dog scandal obviously drove his card prices into the ground. They have been steadily rising the last several months and with the Eagles the NFC favorite at this point they are making another leap. If they live up to expectations it isn’t all that unthinkable to see his RC’s return to their unparalleled levels from 2003-2004 when he was hitting his prime. His Topps Chrome /999 is back to $75 and his Bowman Chrome /1999 is up to $40 again. Not many of his rarer autographs and SP Authentic Patch Autographs have hit the market. We’ll have to wait and see what they bring. Investment Grade: A-
Sam Bradford-Rams are on a collision course with a winning season this year given their weak division which could be even weaker this year after the 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals all lost key defensive pieces. Bradford should have a heyday throwing all over his divisional opponents and he gets injured WR’s back as well as new rookie WR’s. Look for an even better season from Bradford. His prices are already very high though which hurts your investment unless you’re picking it up for your collection. Recommended RC to invest in for low end is Topps Chrome and Refractors or Contenders for a bit higher end without dropping $500 on a National Treasure. Investment Grade: B+
Matt Schaub- Schaub is an interesting case as his SPX Auto RC will cost you about 1/5 as much as Philip Rivers from the same year. However over the past two seasons their numbers have been comparable. Schaub, like Rivers, will turn 30 this season. The upside for Schaub is much higher given the fact that his cards are still fairly low priced. Schaub is a good investment for this year as his teammates are another year older and wiser and should blow less leads this time around. They could make the move to stardom this season rather than just fantasy relevance. Investment Grade: B+
Aaron Rodgers- Considering the only chance at his cardboard taking a bump to higher levels would be another Super Bowl victory you don’t stand to make much on Rodgers. However if you are looking to buy cards to hold that will actually retain value Rodgers is a good bet. Investment Grade: B
Joe Flacco- Another guy whose prices have risen but not quite to unbuyable levels. The Ravens lost some key players this offseason in McClain, McGahee, Heap and a few defensive pieces but still look good to make a playoff run. Most of his Autographed RC’s are still solid deals. A personal geek favorite is the very affordable Leaf Limited RC Auto Patch /99 and it’s parallels which usually sell for $30-40. Still plenty of room for upside on Flacco cardboard but it is limited given the shadow cast by Ray Rice and the Raven defense. Investment Grade: B
Kevin Kolb-Certainly an inexpensive investment at this point if you pick the right card (Bowman Chrome Autos are about $25-30) Kolb has a great opportunity and an even better WR in Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. He hasn’t proven a thing on the field prior to the 2011 season but the clean slate will still benefit his hobby potential. Investment Grade: B
Josh Freeman- Had his cards not seen about a 500% increase since the beginning of the 2010 season this would be the best QB investment out there. However his cards have already made the jump with his SPA’s around $80-$120. It’s tough to recommend Freeman’s RC’s at this point due to his overperforming on the field and cards thus far. Freeman is a watch and wait. Investment Grade: B-
Matt Ryan- This may seem like a no brainer and he doesn’t give you much room to invest for cheap as his stuff is already pricey but the Falcons did very well last season and will be looking to take it to the next level this year. His 2008 National Treasures Auto Patch will cost you $400. Investment Grade: B-
Matt Stafford- Sadly this year already seems like a make or break situation for Stafford who has shown promise but needs to stay on the field. It doesn’t help that his injuries have been throwing shoulder related scaring Lions fans and card collectors. If he doesn’t step up and stay healthy in 2011 his cardboard will take a permanent hit. Like Ryan and Bradford his prices are plenty high right now as well. As usual Chrome and Contenders are the good move for 2009. Investment Grade: B-
Philip Rivers- His 2004 SPX will cost you $75. He throws a lot of TD’s and racks up a ton of yards. He will turn 30 this season and is desperately in need of some big playoff wins to keep his RC cards at their current levels. The Chargers are loaded up and ready to give it another run after faltering early in 2010 and not being able to come all the way back to win the AFC West. Of the established veteran QB’s his is the least likely to hold value if he puts up similar numbers and wins this year. Make or break for Rivers this season. With that being said if he finally does cross the threshold to the Super Bowl expect a major rise in value. Investment Grade: B-
Jay Cutler- Cutler needs to do two things to be a hobby force; 1. Stay out of the headlines for stupid reasons and 2. Perform when it matters. Unfortunately he hasn’t done either one of those things well since getting to Chicago which he landed in due to being littered across headlines anyway for a spat with his coach and GM. Perhaps now that he and his fiance broke up he will have a better season and focus entirely on football. He plays in the right town to get the kind of love to propel his cards to disgustingly high levels but isn’t there for reasons explained already. His SP Authentic RC Auto /99 is one of his nicest but will cost you a lot. His autographed RC’s are pretty rare with his Ultimate and Exquisite even more limited than the SPA. His SPX Auto RC and Bowman Chrome are the best investments for the price of $100 and $50 respectively. He has the talent to be huge but he also wouldn’t be the first player to not fulfill his potential due to mental and off the field issues. Investment Grade: C+
Tim Tebow- No shortage of hobby and media love for this young gun has led to optimism about him taking over as the starter for Denver in Week 1. Unfortunately that hasn’t really been confirmed and he has some work to do to get to that point. Despite the situation at hand his cards are far from a safe investment and they become an even worse one if he doesn’t get to start this season. His Contenders Auto RC (non-SP version) will set you back about $100 which is more than Mark Sanchez, Chris Johnson, Calvin Johnson and other established young stars. Investment Grade: C
Mark Sanchez- He isn’t that great of a QB on a very good team that is run oriented. Game manager for sure. He won’t put up Hall of Fame stats. He may win a Super Bowl or two though and “J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!” love their players and their cards. While he doesn’t have much room to grow he isn’t a bad one to buy and hold purely because of the fan base. Investment Grade: C+
Tony Romo- His prices are still high despite his ineptitude and injuries of the last couple years. They aren’t high by the precedents set in 2008 but they are still too high to recommend investing in him. You can’t even really consider his cardboard a “safe” investment given his problems the last couple years. This will be a big year for his future in cards and the NFL. His SP Authentic Autographed RC’s still sell for $300ish. Investment Grade: D
Cam Newton- #1 pick cardboard is always high. It’s even higher when that player is a QB. It rarely ever gets higher before it gets lower. This is not to say that Newton won’t be any good. In fact I think his athletic ability and personality are above and beyond what a team would want in a QB. He could be very good but even if he is great, his cards won’t see near the increase of a guy who wasn’t picked #1. Investment Grade: D-

Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Peyton Manning would all get the same sort of description as Rodgers. They are safe bets to not decline heavily but you would be hard pressed to make any cash flipping them.
Think we left someone off this list deserving of discussion? Comment!



