Sports Card Geek Heaven
Grading Guru
Commentary on DailyFinance.com’s Baseball Card Investing Advice
Jul 21st
An article was posted on DailyFinance.com providing “10 tips to Win at Baseball Card Investing”. This article is spot on and a harsh reality many collectors refuse to accept. We modern collectors really enjoy the shiny, autographed, embedded jersey laden cards and will continue to snatch them up at very high prices. Old cards don’t interest the modern collector simply because in most of our minds they don’t have much chance to appreciate in value while a Orange refractor of a prospect could quadruple in value within weeks. Modern cards certainly can provide the best ROI but overall a vintage collector or investor is going to realize the most ROI across all of their endeavors than the average prospector.
The article lists 9 tips (although it says “10″ they skipped #6) for those looking to get into vintage. I’ve listed additional tips with each tip the article listed:
1. Buy the highest-quality you can afford.- My additional tip would be to make sure you can afford it. No buying with credit cards!
2. Make sure you buy from reputable sellers and auctioneers. -If it is from ebay or another source of less reputability make sure you’re buying graded AND with a protected payment source like Paypal.
3. Hunt for high-grade cards from the early 1950s and pre-World War II tobacco-company cards-Don’t overlook football from the early 1950′s.
4. In your Internet research, look for trends so you can catch a card or set on its way up in value.- I’m not entirely sure how you are supposed to do this. I suppose studying a set for a few months would let you know what’s going on with it’s prices. Of course then it may have already made it’s move, just like stocks.
5. “You can still invest in good rookie cards and realize a profit,”-Of course you can. There are always a few bad apples that can kill you though like Roger Clemens. Buying cards from the 50′s and earlier would save you from that trouble though.
3. Hunt for high-grade cards from the early 1950s and pre-World War II tobacco-company cards-Don’t overlook football from the early 1950′s.
4. In your Internet research, look for trends so you can catch a card or set on its way up in value.- I’m not entirely sure how you are supposed to do this. I suppose studying a set for a few months would let you know what’s going on with it’s prices. Of course then it may have already made it’s move, just like stocks.
5. “You can still invest in good rookie cards and realize a profit,”-Of course you can. There are always a few bad apples that can kill you though like Roger Clemens. Buying cards from the 50′s and earlier would save you from that trouble though.
6. For high-end collectibles, purchase cards that are graded and sealed by authenticators such as PSA. -If a card is graded by BGS it will probably get a higher grade if you transfer it to PSA. This is NOT true if it was graded using Beckett’s BVG service.
7. Completing sets is back.- And a lot of fun. What that also could mean though is that buying sets is not quite as popular as it was, so don’t go too nuts building a set.
8. Be aware of the risks.- Nothing is a sure bet. Buying vintage graded though is safer than just about any stock out there though if you don’t buy it too high. It may not appreciate but you’ll never lose your shirt on them like stocks can sometimes do to you.
9. Have fun.- DUH!
7. Completing sets is back.- And a lot of fun. What that also could mean though is that buying sets is not quite as popular as it was, so don’t go too nuts building a set.
8. Be aware of the risks.- Nothing is a sure bet. Buying vintage graded though is safer than just about any stock out there though if you don’t buy it too high. It may not appreciate but you’ll never lose your shirt on them like stocks can sometimes do to you.
9. Have fun.- DUH!
Grading Guru: A FCB Redux
Jul 4th
I did a write-up for Freedom Cardboard, the best sports card experience online complete with forums, a blog and a very well priced shop selling the newest and best boxes around. Here is the article in full. You can also read it here.
AS SEEN ON WWW.FREEDOMCARDBOARD.COM
A guide to deciding whether or not to grade your modern cards. I would like to emphasize the word modern. I am not a vintage card expert and probably never will be. Now that you understand you should look elsewhere for guidance concerning your older pieces of cardboard gold it’s time to complete this eight step process to grading excellence.
Step 1: The eyeball test
Give your card a once over. If you can already tell the centering is off, it has scratches, or a corner is dinged….throw it in the “no way” pile.
Step 2: Check the card over with a loupe
Yes it may seem too nerdy for even the nerdiest of souls but don’t let that bother you. Get one of these for roughly $5 on ebay. I suggest buying one at auction to get the lowest price. I would also suggest at least a 25-30x magnifying loupe and an LED light is a plus. It sounds like a lot but mine cost $6 after shipping. I have read that Beckett Graders use a 10x magnifying loupe so if your card can pass inspection with a 30x it should be in very good shape. Check the cards over again paying special attention to surface, edges and corners. Any of them that make you cringe multiple times should go in the “no way” pile.
Step 3: Measure centering if possible
This is not all that difficult to do. Make sure the card is in a sleeve or card saver and get a ruler out to measure the centering. For cards that have a full photo front just give it an eyeball and see what you think. Most of the time full photo fronts won’t get less than a 9 or 9.5 for centering. For cards with borders you can expect about a .5 grade reduction in centering per 1/16 of an inch it is off for the top to bottom and side to side on both the front and the back. That may be a little harsh but when you’re considering upping your investment in a card to get it graded you need to be overly pessimistic about it’s grading potential for the best results.
Step 4: Check the population report
Check the relevant population report for your card and whomever you are submitting to. PSA reports are not free so you may need to find someone who could look one up for you. The FreedomCardboard Forums are a great place to start. You can find Beckett Grading Services reports here (you will need a free Beckett account). If a card has more than 70% Gem mint or better grades on submissions that means the chances are pretty high of you getting a good grade. It also means you need to pay extra attention to step #5.
Step 5: Compare auction prices for your card in various grades
Obviously if you are holding a red refractor #’d to 5 you may have a tough time finding prices to look at of similar cards. However it is worth noting that on a card that rare the value may not see too much of a boost for getting a gem mint grade. For cards not as rare you can search ebay completed listings to give you a better idea of how much of a premium you can expect if your card comes back at a certain grade. Many times this will discourage you from grading a card that is in great shape simply because you would only realize a $3-4 gain over the raw price and it would cost you $7-10 to get it graded. The lesson here is even if the card is in fantastic shape you should not always get it graded. Even if the item is for your personal collection it is not worth it. If a raw card sells for $4 and is $10 in gem mint you should just buy the gem mint and sell your raw. It isn’t worth the chance of paying to get it graded and possibly not even getting the gem mint grade you were hoping for.
Step 6: Prediction time!
Not only is this fun but especially for BGS submissions this can be useful. For example you have a card that you want to get graded pretty badly so you may be inclined to get it graded even if your inspections are telling you no. Write out your predictions for each aspect of the grading: Center, Corners, Surface and Edges. Remember that your card can never get a grade more than .5 higher than the lowest subgrade. So if you predict your surface with only get you an 8.5 your chances of 9.5 are very slim. Predictions should really help you thin out your possible submissions.
Step 7: Submit!
Now that you have narrowed the playing field by quite a bit it’s time to pick how you will submit. There are a ton of options for both grading services but one of the best options out there is the Group submission run by FCB member masonphillip. Find out all about the group BGS submissions here.
Step 8: Record your results and compare to predictions
Give yourself an idea of how much you can truly trust your predictions and what areas you may not be very good at examining. Don’t judge yourself too harshly until you have a sizable sample though. Until you have submitted 50 cards or more don’t get too discouraged with your grading talent. Remember to have fun also, this is a hobby after all!
Grading Guru
Jun 18th
Bryce Harper
2011 Bowman Chrome Prospects vs. 2010 Bowman Chrome USA U-18
The Stats:
2011 Bowman Release Date: May 18, 2011
2010 Bowman Chrome Release Date: October 18, 2010
| Set | # | 8.5 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 10 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 Bowman Chrome 18U USA Baseball | 18BC8 | 26 | 134 | 388 | 21 | 578 |
| 2011 Bowman Chrome Prospects | BCP1 | 3 | 21 | 171 | 8 | 203 |
^ BGS Population Report 6/17/11 at 3:00 PM
What we have here are a couple cards that should not be commanding a premium for BGS 9.5 or better. However people are still paying $12-20 for the raw 2011 Bowman Chrome Prospects and $30-50 for those graded gem mint. The 2010 USA Chrome sells for $50-60 raw and $80-100 gem mint. Proportionately those seem about right with a 80-100% premium on both copies in gem condition. However when you look at the population reports you see that 84% of the 2011 Chrome are coming out gem while only 67% of the 2010 come out gem. Neither one are exceptionally rare.
The take home point of this exercise is that you should look at the numbers before paying a premium. 84% gem means more than four out of every five you pull could get the same grade so you should be submitting them yourself. Couple that with the fact that the 2011 has a higher print run and was made a year later and it is easy to see how your BGS 9.5 2011 Harper Chrome might as well be serial numbered out of 1000 by the time next year rolls around.
Harper’s Washington counterpart Stephen Strasburg had a much nicer spread at 1:8 Chrome RC’s coming back gem mint. Don’t buy the hype, or in this case don’t buy the hyped up version of the hype. His prices will come down soon enough if submissions continue to ring in at their current rate.
Our recommendation is to keep buying the USA Chrome in whatever form you get it and maybe let the 2011 Chrome cool off a bit.
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